Will the Removal of Sanctions on Ahmed Ali Saleh Revitalize Yemen’s General People’s Congress Party?
Executive Summary:
In late July 2023, the UN Security Council’s (UNSC) sanctions committee announced the lifting of sanctions on the son of the former president, Brigadier General Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, and his father, the founder of the General People’s Congress Party (GPCP) in 1982. The sanctions had been imposed on them for “undermining peace, security, and stability in Yemen” on 14 April 2015.
Until recently, Major General Ahmed Saleh positioned himself in a gray area and did not take a clear stance on the two main conflicting parties in Yemen, the Ansar Allah group and the internationally recognized government (IRG). He was elected on May 2, 2019, as the Sana’a-based GPCP’s Vice President. On May 15, 2024, he formally acknowledged “President” Dr. Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi and the “legitimate” government based in the interim capital Aden, thereby solidifying his acceptance among all GPCP’s factions.
With the sanctions lifted and amidst Saudi Arabia’s efforts to end the war, Major General Ahmed Saleh is anticipated to spearhead the resurgence of the GPCP in political affairs, assuming a leadership role within the GPCP presidency.
Introduction:
The GPCP played a pivotal role in shaping Yemeni politics from its inception in 1982 until 2011. However, its influence waned during the Arab Spring, leading to the removal of its former leader, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, from power. This period marked a phase of political turmoil, culminating in the Ansar Allah group gaining control of the capital Sana’a and other Yemeni cities.
During these tumultuous events, the Ansar Allah group formed an alliance with the ex-president and then-leader of the GPCP, Ali Abdullah Saleh, causing dissatisfaction among certain General People’s Congress Party supporters. Consequently, some members left Yemen to join the internationally recognized government under the leadership of former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, who had relocated to Riyadh.
On April 14, 2015, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on the son of the former president and former commander of the Yemeni Republican Guard, Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, after it had imposed sanctions on his father on November 7, 2014, which included freezing their assets and banning them from traveling abroad.
The alliance between the Ansar Allah group and the GPCP (Saleh faction in Sana’a) lasted only three years ended with killing of Saleh in December 2017. His departure from the Ansar Allah group precipitated a new phase of fragmentation and division within the General People’s Congress. Members held differing views on the conflict and alliances, with some supporting the Ansar Allah group and others opposing it. As a result, the party withdrew from active political engagement, losing a significant portion of its support base and undergoing structural and organizational deterioration. Some leaders relocated to Riyadh (Hadi faction), while others moved to Abu Dhabi, where Saleh’s son resides (Ahmed Ali faction). Meanwhile, some leaders remained in Sana’a under Ansar Allah group authority both politically and militarily. A few leaders opted for a neutral stance, positioning themselves in gray areas and traveling to various Arab and international capitals, notably Cairo.
On July 30, 2024, the UNSC’s sanctions committee announced the removal of Ali Abdullah Saleh and his son Ahmed from the sanctions list that had been imposed on them previously.
There is speculation about whether the lifting of sanctions could herald a revival for the GPCP, potentially propelling it back to the forefront of Yemeni politics. This brief paper aims to delve into this inquiry.
The GPCP: From Establishment to Fragmentation
The GPCP was founded in 1982 by the former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was then the President of the Arab Republic of Yemen. It managed to attract several political forces to unite them under the umbrella of the General People’s Congress, a party that dominated the political scene for nearly three decades, achieving many successes and gaining widespread popularity throughout Yemen. During his rule, oil was discovered, Yemeni unity was achieved, and relative security was established. However, on the flip side, he also failed in many aspects; e.g., his governance revolved around centralization and administrative bureaucracy. The Arab Spring uprising in January 2011 proved to be the breaking point, as millions of protesters flooded the streets and squares demanding the “downfall of the political system.” In November 2011, the former President Ali Saleh signed the Gulf Initiative agreement, which led to his resignation from the presidency in February 2012. His then-vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, was elected unopposed as the President of the Republic. During this turbulent period, the popularity and membership of the GPCP faced numerous shocks and severe blows, diminishing its influence and disrupting its structure. It had barely recovered from these blows when it suffered two successive and crippling blows that led to the erosion, divergence, and division of its foundations.
First: Alliance with the Ansar Allah Group
After the Ansar Allah group took control of the capital Sana’a in 2014, the GPCP, led by former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, formed an alliance with them. This partnership was solidified through the establishment of the Supreme Political Council and the Salvation Government in Sana’a in 2016. The alliance was primarily a response to their political adversary, the Yemeni Congregation for Reform party (Al-Islah). The GPCP anticipated that Al-Islah would enter into armed conflict with the Ansar Allah group, leading to mutual exhaustion. Their strategy was for President Saleh and his party to emerge as mediators and key figures in the political landscape once again.
However, this alliance resulted in further division and significant polarization within the GPCP. This internal fragmentation presented them with three options: to maintain their allegiance with the Ansar Allah group, to align with President Abdrabbuh Hadi in Riyadh, or to remain neutral. Consequently, the party splintered into multiple factions. Some opted to remain in Sana’a (Sana’a faction), some chose to align with Riyadh to support the legitimate government politically and militarily (Hadi faction), while others relocated to Abu Dhabi (Ahmed Ali faction). Some members even left Yemen altogether, disengaging from political life and adopting a stance of bureaucratic silence, refraining from aligning with any side until the crisis in Yemen was resolved, observing to discern the prevailing faction.
The Ansar Allah group and their supporters from the GPCP (Sana’a faction) tackled the governance vacuum by establishing the Supreme Political Council on August 6, 2016, with ten members appointed equally. This council aimed, according to Saba agency, to coordinate efforts against Saudi-led aggression and its allies, and to govern the state across various domains in accordance with the constitution. Subsequently, the joint Salvation Government was formed on November 28 of the same year. Given their role in the Supreme Political Council, members of the GPCP engaged in negotiations in Geneva and Stockholm. Various units of the Yemeni armed forces, including the Republican Guard and the Special Forces under the leadership of Brigadier General Tareq Saleh, participated in combat alongside the Ansar Allah group.
Second: Disengagement from the Ansar Allah Group
On December 2, 2017, a dramatic shift unfolded as the relationship between the GPCP and the Ansar Allah group was completely overturned. President Saleh urged members of the GPCP across Yemen to initiate a popular uprising against “the Ansar Allah group and its ideology.” This call, which tragically concluded with his death during ensuing armed conflicts, marked what could be labeled as the second phase of dispersal and migration for General People’s Congress Party members. Among those dispersed was Brigadier Tareq Saleh, the nephew of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who established what later became recognized as the “Guards of the Republic forces” or “National Resistance,” a coalition that attracted many General People’s Congress Party members (Tareq’s faction).
The National Resistance and the Political Bureau of the National Resistance
The Guards of the Republic forces or the National Resistance are essentially a recreated version of the Republican Guard forces. They consist of units formed from leftover elements of the Republican Guard and Special Security who maintain loyalty to the GPCP and its leader, along with civilians from various regions of Yemen who support the GPCP.
While the Guards of the Republic forces acknowledge President Hadi’s legitimacy in theory, they do not operate within the structure, command, or leadership of the Yemeni Ministry of Defense or General Staff Headquarters. They continue to function under an operations room directly associated with the Arab Coalition forces, particularly the United Arab Emirates, receiving substantial military support including weaponry, salaries, and air and ground assistance in their military endeavors. As a result, they have evolved into a potent force in terms of equipment and armament, reportedly being the most proficient and capable military group among all the military factions opposing the Ansar Allah group, as per certain sources.
Ahmed Ali Saleh
Ahmed Ali Saleh was the commander of the Republican Guard forces and Special Forces during his father’s rule until he was ousted from his position in 2013 and appointed as the Ambassador of Yemen to the United Arab Emirates, where he has remained since being removed from the ambassadorial post in December 2015.
During the past ten years, and because he resided outside Yemen, Brigadier General Ahmed’s hands were not stained with blood, and he did not issue any provocative statements against this or that party, which makes him enjoy relative consensus among the supporters of the General People’s Congress.
Sanctions and the Context of their Removal
Following the alliance between the GPCP and the Ansar Allah group in 2014, which led to the collapse of the legitimate institutions in Yemen led by former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the UNSC sanctions committee imposed sanctions on former President Saleh and then on his son Ahmed (April 2015) on the pretext of their obstruction of the efforts of “the legitimate” Yemeni government headed by Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.
After approximately a decade, and as a result of Yemeni presidential efforts with Saudi and Emirati support, the UNSC sanctions committee decided to remove their names from the sanctions list.
The decision to lift sanctions on Brigadier General Ahmed Saleh comes amidst efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United Nations to establish peace and take practical steps towards resolving the Yemeni crisis. These efforts include preparing the political conditions for a transitional phase in Yemen’s history and safeguarding the interests of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen. In essence, Saudi Arabia and the UAE played a pivotal role in lifting the sanctions, as underscored by Brigadier General Tariq Saleh, a member of the Presidential Council, in reference to the removal of his uncle Saleh and cousin Ahmed from the UNSC sanctions list. In a tweet on X platform, he expressed gratitude for the collective efforts of the Presidential Council and the support from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia and the UAE aim to contain centers of influence in Yemen, particularly considering the political significance held by Brigadier General Ahmed Saleh. His removal from the sanctions list, especially at this juncture, strongly indicates that he is being prepared to assume a political role in Yemen’s future. Speculating on the nature and scope of this role is complex; he may be propelled to lead the GPCP, given his ongoing positive relations with the party’s figures and all its factions both within and outside Yemen, in addition to his broad support base among the party’s followers.
Returning to the political scene will probably not be a personal or regional choice, as it may be rejected by some other parties in the Yemeni “legitimacy” or by the Ansar Allah group, with which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia seeks rapprochement.
His actions in the days ahead will reveal the potential role he may undertake. Should he return to Yemen soon, it signifies his intent to rejuvenate the GPCP and unite its factions, thereby engaging in political activities through it. Conversely, if he remains outside Yemen, it suggests a deliberate choice to distance himself from politics, leaving the political stage to his cousin, Tariq Saleh.
