What Has American Envoy Tim Lenderking Accomplished in Yemen Conflict as Biden’s Presidency Nears Its End?
Executive Summary
From day one, the Biden administration made ending the war in Yemen a top foreign policy priority. For this, President Biden appointed diplomat Tim Lenderking as a U.S. special envoy to Yemen. As the Biden presidency nears its end, some are wondering what breakthroughs Lenderking has made to achieve this goal, and this is what this paper seeks to shed light on.
Since his appointment in February 2021, Lenderking has concentrated on regional diplomacy, utilizing Gulf mediation resources like Oman, and applying pressure on key players (Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) to resolve the Yemen conflict. U.S.-facilitated diplomacy, led by the efforts of Tim Lenderking, contributed in achieving a humanitarian truce on April 2022. However, the truce was only the first step toward a comprehensive peace process. Towards this end, Lenderking worked closely with the UN envoy, Hans Grundberg, and with the regional actors to reach an intra-Yemeni political dialogue, which was about to be achieved by the end of 2023, but was halted due to the military developments in the region.
Despite these endeavors, the outcomes have not met expectations, with Yemen still not on the path to peace. Two primary reasons account for this shortfall: firstly, Lenderking’s role is primarily limited to pressuring regional powers (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) to make concessions to the Ansar Allah group (the Houthis), whom he lacked leverage on them except through Oman’s mediation to accept proposed initiatives. Secondly, the Ansar Allah group’s involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has complicated peaceful resolutions, rendering an end to the war seemingly unattainable under these circumstances.
In the midst of escalating military activities in the Red Sea, Lenderking has transitioned focus from ending the Yemen conflict to urging the Ansar Allah group to cease their attacks in the Red and Arabian Seas.
Introduction
After one month in office, President Joe Biden delivered his inaugural foreign policy speech on February 4, 2021, where he unveiled three pivotal decisions concerning Yemen: halting American backing for all offensive military operations and weapon transactions to Saudi Arabia, backing UN initiatives for conflict resolution, and designating American diplomat Tim Lenderking as a special envoy to Yemen. These determinations encapsulated the essence of Biden’s foreign policy agenda, emphasizing conflict resolution through diplomacy, stepping back from direct assistance to its key ally, Saudi Arabia, and highlighting a mediatory stance rather than a belligerent partnership.
These profound alterations in American foreign policy, combined with the nation’s global stature and influence, prompted numerous media outlets, political pundits, and Yemen observers to express hope regarding the efficacy of Tim Lenderking’s endeavors towards brokering a political breakthrough among the warring factions. Such progress could naturally lead to the cessation of the devastating conflict that has thrust Yemen into one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises worldwide in the 21st century.
As we approach almost four years since Lenderking’s appointment and a decade since the conflict began, it is pertinent to evaluate his accomplishments, the obstacles he encountered, and speculate on his future role post the upcoming November 5th.
Who is Tim Lenderking?
Tim Lenderking, an experienced American diplomat, possesses in-depth knowledge of the Arab region, particularly the Arabian Gulf, gained through his diplomatic postings in Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon, and Sudan. During the Trump administration, he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arabian Gulf Affairs and Yemen, and earlier held key roles at the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia and as a diplomatic advisor in Iraq. Widely recognized for his profound understanding of the Yemeni conflict, Lenderking is well-acquainted with the involved parties and entities.
The selection of Tim Lenderking as a special envoy to Yemen signifies a critical juncture in U.S. foreign policy regarding the Yemeni crisis. His appointment underscores the Biden administration’s commitment to swiftly ending the conflict, tasking him with designing peace incentives and strategies to de-escalate tensions effectively.
Incentives
Engagement with the Ansar Allah Group
The American envoy, Lenderking, aimed to engage with and influence the Ansar Allah group, directly or indirectly. Subsequently, they were delisted from the terrorism list previously designated by the Trump administration. Additionally, Lenderking offered further recognition by acknowledging the Ansar Allah group as a “legitimate entity,” citing their territorial gains as justification. He emphasized that the group should not shoulder sole responsibility for the violence in Yemen, advocating for the Saudi-led coalition to also be held accountable. Nevertheless, removing them from the terrorist list and recognizing them as a legitimate player was merely an incentive to contain the group. Lenderking’s intention with this statement, therefore, was to reassure the Ansar Allah group that the United States perceives them as a legitimate Yemeni political entity, distinct from unlawful terrorist organizations, with no intention of undermining their political standing.
In other words, while the American envoy tacitly acknowledged the group’s legitimacy based on their presence and engagement, this recognition was contingent upon the Ansar Allah group’s alignment with international efforts to resolve the conflict. It did not constitute political recognition, as explicitly clarified by the U.S. Department of State in a statement: “Recent reports misinterpreting statements by the Special Envoy for Yemen regarding the Ansar Allah group and the conflict in Yemen have surfaced… The United States, in line with the international community, recognizes the Yemeni government as the sole legitimate internationally recognized authority.”
Contrary to expectations, the Ansar Allah group did not respond as anticipated. They explicitly stated that they did not seek approval or recognition from the U.S. and continued launching attacks on Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the American envoy expressed his disappointment in the Ansar Allah group for rejecting these incentives and escalating hostilities against Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Continuation of Humanitarian Aid
The United States continued to provide crucial humanitarian assistance in Yemen, aiming to alleviate the humanitarian crisis, save lives, and advance the peace process. This aid positioned Yemen as the third-highest recipient of U.S. assistance in 2023.
Lenderking’s approach to end the conflict
In his pursuit of conflict resolution in Yemen, Lenderking focused on two primary objectives: working towards a permanent solution to the conflict (the political track) and taking immediate actions to address the humanitarian and economic crises in the country (the humanitarian track). Given that the humanitarian crisis stemmed from the ongoing conflict, Lenderking directed his efforts towards ending the war.
Political Initiatives
Upon his appointment, Lenderking’s first diplomatic visit was to Riyadh on February 10, 2021, where he engaged with the Saudi leadership and the internationally recognized government. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia introduced an initiative aimed at ending the conflict in Yemen and facilitating negotiations for a political resolution.
The Saudi initiative appeared to offer some concessions that the Ansar Allah group had previously demanded, including a comprehensive ceasefire nationwide, the reopening of Sana’a airport for flights to specific destinations, the reopening of Hodeidah port with its revenues directed towards paying the salaries of employees cut off since the end of 2016, and the initiation of political negotiations leading to the end of the war. This last point remains a point of contention, as the Ansar Allah group seems unwilling to take this step, given its comfortable military position.
Undoubtedly, this initiative came in the context of American approach to end the war, aligning with Lenderking’s efforts. Although this initiative did not come to fruition, Lenderking seems to have relied on it to push the Saudi peace initiative forward and pave the way for future initiatives. With his deep understanding of the motives of the conflict and the influential forces in the region, he focused most of his efforts on pressuring the active parties (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) to make concessions that contribute to ending the war. He also enlisted the Sultanate of Oman – which had become a center for his diplomatic activities – to act as a mediator between the Ansar Allah group and the Islamic Republic of Iran on one side, and Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognized government on the other side. This strategy appeared to be effective due to Oman’s ideal mediation qualities and its acceptance by all parties, albeit to varying degrees, as it is difficult to imagine the success of any political settlement in Yemen without exerting pressure and consulting with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two countries directly involved in the conflict in Yemen.
Over almost a year, the American envoy conducted extensive shuttle diplomacy across Gulf capitals, meeting with key officials from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen. Throughout these engagements, he emphasized the importance of relaxing restrictions at Hodeidah port and Sana’a airport, implementing a comprehensive nationwide ceasefire, and transitioning towards inclusive political dialogues. These efforts culminated in the establishment of a humanitarian ceasefire in April 2022, marked by a significant reduction in military activities, cessation of cross-border attacks, and eased travel and trade restrictions, a framework that has persisted despite officially ending in October 2022.
Following the ceasefire, the American envoy intensified efforts to build upon its achievements and propel the peace process forward, notably increasing engagements in the region, particularly with Oman. These endeavors facilitated a significant breakthrough in negotiations between the Ansar Allah group and Saudi Arabia, resulting in the anticipated Roadmap Agreement slated for signing by the close of 2023, were it not for regional disruptions triggered by the Israeli conflict in Gaza and its implications on the Yemeni landscape.
Shift in American Stance Towards the Conflict
While ending the war in Yemen remained a priority for the American administration, given the new developments in the region and the ongoing events in the context of the Gaza conflict, Washington’s desire, as well as that of its envoy, to resolve the Yemeni conflict has significantly waned.
Lenderking’s Position on the Ansar Allah Group Attacks on Israeli Interests
Peace negotiations and the signing of a roadmap have ceased to be top priorities for Lenderking. In recent interviews, including those with Al Arabiya Al Hadath and Al Jazeera less than a week ago, he declared peace talks in Yemen as unfeasible due to Ansar Allah group attacks. He cautioned against potential setbacks, resumptions, and escalations of military conflicts, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
Lenderking’s peace vision for Yemen has shifted from merely ending the war to demanding an immediate halt to the Ansar Allah group attacks in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf, and quelling the flames on the Greek oil tanker “FNS Sounion,” a significant concern highlighted in his recent TV appearances.
Nevertheless, in his Al Jazeera interview, Lenderking stressed that Washington is committed to achieving peace in Yemen without delay, regardless of other regional events. He underscored the necessity for a diplomatic resolution, ruling out military intervention to resolve the crisis in Yemen. The nature of this diplomatic approach remains uncertain, particularly in light of the Ansar Allah group’s history of targeting Israeli interests both at sea and on land. His reference to a diplomatic solution under these circumstances may function as a diplomatic gesture to keep avenues open for future political endeavors, likely to unfold after the cessation of Israeli aggression against Gaza. In the interim, Lenderking will work with influential regional powers to navigate the conflict in Yemen, maintaining a fragile equilibrium between war and peace.
Will Lenderking Remain in His Role?
Special envoys typically embody the governing administration’s perspective and echo the head of state’s stance on a specific matter. Consequently, Lenderking’s vision inherently mirrors that of President Biden and potentially Vice President Kamala Harris. Should Harris secure victory in the upcoming November presidential election and assume office, it is probable that Lenderking will persist as her designated envoy for Yemen. Conversely, if the Republican Donald Trump emerges victorious, it is highly plausible that his role will be terminated. In the event of Lenderking retaining his position, the pivotal question emerges: what contributions can he make in the foreseeable future? The answer to this inquiry hinges on the region’s dynamic evolution and the outcomes of the U.S. elections. A conclusion to the conflict in Gaza coupled with a Harris presidency would grant Lenderking a fresh opportunity to reignite his diplomatic efforts, expediting the conclusion of a peace agreement in Yemen. However, should the conflict persist, his mission will linger in uncertainty until the war’s resolution, marked by continued calls for the Ansar Allah group to halt their assaults on vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
